An old timer in sports betting can tell if a person knows what he is doing based on what he says about the win or lose result. This is because newbies don’t know that sports betting isn’t just about picking winners or losers. It’s about wagering on value. Understanding value will help you learn how to make money from sports betting. In sports betting, finding value is when you find a better paying bet.
To bring the concept home consider this real life example. You are an electrician who is worth up to ten thousand naira per hour and you find a job that is offering one hundred thousand for five hours. In the context, there is no value here because you’re being paid exactly what you think you are worth with no extra value. Value would come in when you find a job that offers you the same hundred thousand for three to four hours rather than five. So, when applied to sports betting, finding value is simply finding bets that will pay out more than you expect.
Finding Value In Sports Betting
Before you find value, you need to have an idea of what implied probability stands for. Implied probability in sports betting is a term used to refer to what you will get if you win a bet as well as the possible percentage equivalent. It is this percentage likelihood that is called the implied probability. For example, you’re placing a bet on a site that gives you a chance to bet without paying a fee. The site says the team you’re betting on is +300. The implied probability of this will be 25%. It means that your sports books believes you will win the bet one out of four times. Wagering on this is riskier than placing a bet that has 50% as the implied probability. An implied probability of 50% means you’ll win the bet two out of four times.
You might consider the payouts from the 50% implied probability as unwarranted, at this point, you’ve located value. While the sports book prediction of what will happen is called the implied probability, your own prediction of the outcome, if correct, is called the actual probability. You will find value when the actual probability is higher than the implied probability. The more value you find, the more profit you’ll make from betting. While you can’t know the actual probability before the event, you can make your predictions based on the stats and other information at your disposal.
Always remember that betting in sports isn’t about picking the winner or loser. It’s about finding real value. Don’t rush into using your money to wager on an event before doing your research and finding value.